Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, November 6th

Thursday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory, rebounding from yesterday’s strong sell-off. Stocks are helping the cause with the Dow down 338 points and the Nasdaq down 225 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32 (4.09%), which should allow for this morning’s mortgage rates to be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Wednesday’s early pricing. There were widespread upward intraday revisions to rates Wednesday afternoon, meaning the actual change you will see this morning depends on the amount of the revision you saw yesterday.

18/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.09%

338

Dow

46,971

225

NASDAQ

23,273

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Unknown

Fed Talk

There is no relevant economic data being released today due to the government shutdown. There weren’t any highly important reports scheduled for release today, but we would have seen a couple of moderately influential reports. This leaves just a bunch of Fed-member speeches throughout the day as the likely source of a noticeable intraday move in the markets and/or mortgage pricing. None of them stand out as likely to cause a reaction in the bond market or mortgage rates though.

Medium

Unknown

Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Tomorrow does bring us another piece of data that may draw some attention. The University of Michigan will post their preliminary reading of their November Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend by surveying consumers about confidence in their own financial situations. It is expected to show a small decline from October's final reading of 53.6. Favorable news for bonds would be a noticeably lower reading because waning sentiment means consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations and are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. With consumer spending making up over two-thirds of our economy, any related data is watched closely. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage shoppers.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.